It’s pretty clear that Henry is catching a lot of heat for his OTS (Out To Sea) forecast of Sandy. The GFS is most likely to make Henry look “less wrong”, so he’s going with that.Now, here’s where it gets really fun. Forget the fact the Euro was forecasting Isaac going into New Orleans when the GFS had it moving Eastof Florida. So you only like the GFS because it’s most compromising with you and your forecast? Forget the fact the Euro has been about as consistent as can be expected. Well, at least he had a model supporting him. I’m not sure I would make a forecast based upon it and one model that appears to be an outlier, but that’s what Henry did. Still, it is an odd track and that’s worth noting. Hurricane Hazel is the classic example of a hurricane moving due north into the US instead of out to sea. And it’s not like this has never happened. It is not normal, but anomalous things happen all the time in Mother Nature. Why you ask? Because “things like that just don’t happen.” That’s what Henry stated in reference to the European solution.Now, I’ll admit to putting a disclaimer at the bottom of my first Sandy post regarding this odd track. And, despite explaining on Tuesday why the GFS was wrong and would “come around”, Henry decided to go with the outlier in the GFS. Keep in mind this whole time the European, Canadian, and Navy models consistently brought Sandy near the East Coast and into the US. So after explaining why the storm should get forced up the East Coast and into the US (blocking from negative NAO), Henry determines that Sandy should just “get whipped out to sea” and another storm will develop behind it.
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